Recent Developments
The current picture in a nutshell from the Report on Vocational Education and Training from the Federal Ministery of Education and Research (BMBF 2023) shows:
Beginners in (vocational) education and training
The number of new entrants into vocational education and training in 2022 remained unchanged compared to the previous year. Within this sector, the number of new entrants in dual VET increased by 1.3 %, while the number of beginners in school-based trainings in health, education and social services fell by 2.3 %. In the transitional area, the number of new entrants increased by 6.3%. This is presumably due to the entries of immigrant Ukrainian youth.
Slight increase in newly concluded training contracts under the Vocational Training Act and the Crafts Code
The number of newly concluded training contracts in 2022 increased slightly by 0.4% to 475,100. Only the industry and commerce area of responsibility recorded an increase in newly concluded training contracts compared to 2021. In all other areas of responsibility recorded declines. The number of newly concluded training contracts in 2022 remained significantly below the pre-Corona level (-9.5% compared to 2019).
Contrasting developments in training supply and demand for dual vocational training
In 2022, the number of training places offered rose by a further 1.4% year-on-year to 544,000. There was no change in the demand for training according to the traditional definition (+0.0% to 497,800). Including applicants with an alternative, the expanded demand in 2022 fell by a further 1.0% to 535,500. This resulted in an expanded supply-demand ratio of over 100 for the first time.
Both supply (-5.9 % compared to 2019) and demand (traditionally -9.4 % and extended -10.6 % compared to 2019) were still well below pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
Matching supply and demand remains a challenge
At the end of September 2022, 68,900 training places were unfilled (+9.0% compared to 2021; +29.6% compared to 2019) and 22,700 applicants completely unsupplied (-7.8% compared to 2021; -7.5% compared to 2019). 37,700 applicants were in an alternative program (-12.7 % compared to 2021; -23.3% compared to 2019).
Additional challenges selected from the Datareport 2023 (BIBB 2023) show:
Beginners in the transitional area
The number of beginners in the transitional area (239,100) has risen for the first time according to the provisional reporting, the number of new entrants in the transition since 2016 (+6.3 % in 2021, -4.4 % in 2019). The increase is based on the rise in the number of foreign entrants and is likely to be mainly Ukrainian youths who are participating in programmes to learn the German language.
Participation of enterprises in training
According to analyses by BIBB based on data from employment statistics, in the year 416,700 companies were involved in the vocational training of youths and young adults. Compared to the previous year, the number of training companies fell by 3,000 (-0.7%). The training company ratio was 19.1 % (2020: 19.4 %; 2019: 19,6 %). In 2021, the decline in training participation was once again exclusively due to falling in the number of training companies among very small enterprises with up to nine employees.
Persons without vocational qualification
According to BIBB calculations on the basis of the microcensus the proportion of young adults aged 20 to 34 without a formal vocational qualification was 17.8%. Extrapolated, this amounted to 2.64 million non-formally qualified young adults. Compared to the previous year (2020: 15.5% or 2.33 million), there has been an increase.
People without a school-leaving certificate are particularly at risk of not obtaining a vocational qualification. With increase of school-certificate the rate of unskilled workers decreases.
An above-average number of people with a migrant background with a migration background also remain without a vocational qualification. The rate of those not formally qualified was 20- to 34-year-old migrants with their own migration experience own migration experience was 38.1 % (for comparison: Germans without a migration background: 10.6%).