GenDis: Is working for the public good attractive? Not always!
Ensuring socially necessary services (GenDis): Is working for the public good attractive? This was the question raised by a research project linked to QuBe. A recently published anthology finds ambivalent answers to the central question of GenDis.
BMAS skilled workers monitoring: New scenario calculations
Being part of the skilled workers monitoring for the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS), dedicated scenario calculations are conducted recurrently. A new publication shows analyses that focus on the employment rates of different socio-demographic groups and desired working hours.
QuBe scenario analysis on climate adaptation of the labour market
Which and how many skilled workers are required to implement climate adaptation measures? What skills are needed? Using the QuBe projections, an analysis in the current issue of bwp@ sheds light on these questions.
"Ecological transformation" in "Vocational education and training in science and practice"
Subject to the current issue of "Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis" are the major challenges induced by the "ecological transformation". Expertise from the QuBe project is contributed here on the topics of hydrogen and a potential ‚right to repair‘.
New medium-term projection until 2027 for the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS)
QuBe prepares annual medium-term forecasts for the BMAS. Focussing in particular on economic developments, they reveal current dynamics. Facing multiple challenges, economy and labour market are in fact changing. The latest report (2027) shows this.
New QuBe projections for the development of a hydrogen economy show positive economic impulses for an entire period up to 2045: a higher gross domestic product, more jobs and people in employment. At the same time, there will be an increasing demand for skilled labour.
A new publication by BIBB in cooperation with the Institute for Labour Market and Career Research (IAB) and the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) presents assumptions, data and basic projections from the “Qualification and Occupational Projections" (QuBe project).
New long-term projection for the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs
QuBe developed a specific scenario for the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, focussing on a ‘progressive’ world of work. This long-term projection is based on the 7th wave of QuBe projections, enriching them with further assumptions on ecological transformation and a modern state.
Effects of the socio-ecological transformation on jobs
The energy transition is a major economic challenge. The capital stock must be renewed, production processes changed, energy sources substituted. Resources have to be used more efficiently. Identifying and understanding 'green' occupations is important for this, says the QuBe project.
National hydrogen strategy: initial assessment of possible labour market effects
The National Hydrogen Strategy causes research and development needs. Furthermore, investments will have to be made and the restructuring of both the industries and the energy system will have to be carried out. The QuBe project finds positive possible labour market effects.
Wasted potential of skilled workers: reducing cancellation rates at training centres
Shortages of skilled workers can jeopardise major social projects such as the socio-ecological transformation. It is therefore important to address them. A recent study reveals: Reducing cancellations of training and study programmes can have a noticeable effect on the supply of skilled workers.
New QuBe dossier series of 7th wave basic projection online
New 7th wave basic projection dossiers on competencies, federal states, and occupations are available for free to download. They provide insights on the expected development of the German labour market up to the year 2040.
Skilled workers monitoring for the BMAS - medium-term projection until 2026
In some occupational groups, such as the construction occupations, a shortage of skilled workers is already being highlighted today. The current skilled workers monitoring up to 2026 forecasts increasing challenges for the economy to recruit skilled workers.
It's getting scarce: results of the QuBe basic projection (7th wave)
The results of the 7th wave provide an overview of the expected development of the German labour market up to 2040. The economy is on a threshold. Many resources are becoming scarcer, particularly as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Dossiers on occupations for the QuBe basic projection (7thwave)
Dossiers on occupations have again been prepared using the results of the seventh wave of the QuBe basic projection. In detail, they illustrate the development of 36 main occupational groups of the classification of occupations (KldB 2010) up to the year 2040. Various key figures are discussed.
Potential partner countries for the import of green hydrogen to Germany
It is assumed, not only at national but also at EU level, that the capacities for the production of climate-friendly hydrogen will not be sufficient for a self-sufficient energy supply. A new discussion paper analyses potential cooperation partnerships.
QuBe population projection for Germany's districts and independent cities
Specific migration movements, which sometimes lead to urbanisation or result from refugee movements, have different regional effects. This is one of the reasons why a new QuBe population projection has been developed.
Future import needs in a hydrogen-based transformation
Renewable electricity, green hydrogen and power-to-X products will replace fossil fuels in the future. Based on a meta-analysis, a new BIBB Discussion Paper forecasts future import needs for Germany in the event of a developed hydrogen economy.
Demand for skilled workers induced by the objectives of the new federal government
The new federal government has set ambitious targets for climate protection and social housing. A new BIBB study shows how this will affect the demand for skilled workers and whether it can be met by the existing supply.
Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for the labour market and the economy
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has extensive implications for Germany and the rest of the world. A new QuBe study shows how this will affect the German economy and labour market as well as areas of action that can mitigate the impending consequences.
The German federal government's coalition agreement outlines a transformation of Germany towards a socio-ecological market economy. We therefore address the question of how such a transition can be modelled in a socio-economic structural model such as the one used in the QuBe project.
Effects of climate protection measures on the economy and labour market
A new study carried out by the QuBe project on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs estimates the effects of climate protection measures on the labour market and the economy up to 2025.
The National Hydrogen Strategy and its implications for the labour market
On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the QuBe project is investigating the implications of the National Hydrogen Strategy for the German labour market. An initial report presents the current state of research on the labour market consequences of a hydrogen economy in Germany.
Construction industry challenged by German federal government's coalition agreement
The coalition agreement challenges the construction industry with its goals in housing construction and climate protection. Analyses of the QuBe project show that the skilled workers required for implementation are currently not available. Therefore, specific measures are offered.
First medium-term forecast on behalf of the BMAS: Labour market dynamics until 2025
The QuBe project was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) to provide the first medium-term forecast. It depicts the development of the labour market for the next five years. Gender-relevant indicators and focus occupations with matching problems were identified.
Publication of QuBe basic projection dossiers on occupation
As part of the 6th wave of the BIBB-IAB Qualification and Occupational projections, dossiers on occupations for 36 main occupational groups have been compiled for the first time. Using various indicators, they illustrate the development of the individual occupations in the basic projection.
The QuBe-Classification of Competencies - methodology and results of a projection
The QuBe project has developed its own classification of competencies, which can be used to project current skills requirements on the labour market into the future. A newly published study presents its operationalisation and further analyses.
Increasing mobility, digitalisation and climate protection targets require a transformation in the mobility system. The "MoveOn" III report models this regime change using a scenario analysis up to the year 2040. It shows specific changes on the German labour market.
Labour market effects of a transformation to climate neutrality
On behalf of the Climate Neutrality Foundation, QuBe team determined the labour market effects of climate protection measures to achieve a 65% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030. According to the study, the path to a climate-neutral Germany has positive effects on the economy and labour market.
Results of the forecast for a digitalised world of work available in the QuBe data portal
The results of the updated forecast for a digitalised world of work are now available on the QuBe data portal. In addition to supply and demand, which can be shown both by person and by working hours, the adjusted search durations are also available for download.
Updated projection of the labour market in a digitalised world of work up to 2040
The forecast of the labour market in a digitalised world of work prepared on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs has been updated. In addition to accelerated digitalisation, long-term changes in behaviour due to the coronavirus crisis are also assumed.
Demographics and structural change characterise the development of the federal states
Region-specific model calculations of the BIBB-IAB Qualification and Occupational projections provide an overview of the expected development of the labour markets in the federal states up to 2040. The short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are also depicted.
"Systemically relevant occupations", "critical infrastructures": Certain services are increasingly coming into focus, and not just since the start of the COVID-19 crisis. In a first working paper, the project GenDis with QuBe connection discusses what "socially necessary services" could be.
How will the labour market in Germany develop between now and 2040? Which occupation-specific trends in labour supply and demand can be identified? The latest BIBB-IAB Qualifications and Occupational (QuBe) projections provide answers to these and further questions.
Adjusted search duration: New indicator for the skilled labour situation in occupations
Adjusted search durations indicate the average time in days that companies need to successfully fill an advertised vacancy. A new study by QuBe project shows that these durations are suitable as an indicator for the occupation-specific skilled workers situation.
The 2035 labour market: Population growth with low unemployment
An increase in the population, hostorically low unemployment and shortages of skilled workers in specific occupations – especially in health care occupations – will characterise the labour market in Germany in 2035. This is shown by current projections by BIBB and IAB.
There will be a marked difference in the development of regional labour markets in Germany up to 2035. The reasons for this are different economic priorities in the regions and demographic changes. Current analyses by BIBB and IAB show this.
The aim of the project is to provide a long-term overview of the anticipated development of labour supply and demand. The new QuBe Data Portal allows projection data to be presented both graphically and in tabular form.
Despite a growth in the population, shortages of skilled workers persist
Despite a medium-term growth in the population, shortages of skilled workers can't be prevented in the long-term. According to recent studies by BIBB and IAB in the highly qualified area, the labour supply is exhibiting a stronger long-term increase than the relevant labour demand.
Risk of widespread skilled labour shortages by the year 2030 in the technical occupations
There will be skilled labour shortages in all regions of Germany by the year 2030 in the technical occupations. This is shown for the first time by the regional results of the joint qualification and occupational field projections compiled by BIBB and IAB.
