QuBe - Germany (4th wave / 2016)

The fourth wave of the BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections takes the changes in economic and political conditions since the third wave into account, which is reflected in a further differentiation of the methodology. In addition, the projection period was extended to 2035.

The biggest change is due to the increased migration in particular of refugees in the year 2015, which has necessitated the creation of an own QuBe population projection. In previous projections, the 12th Coordinated Population Projection of the Federal Statistical Office was used, but in the course of 2015, it was quickly apparent that the updated 13th Coordinated Population Projection also significantly underestimated current net migration gains. By means of a separate "refugees-module", the medium and long-term influence of the refugees on the population structure and the supply of labour are estimated for the fourth projection wave.

The introduction of the Occupational Classification of 2010 (KldB 2010) also made it necessary to adjust the 54 BIBB occupational fields previously used to 50 BIBB occupational fields. At the same time, the KldB 2010 also recorded the requirements level directed towards the worker by the job. This makes it possible for the first time to compare the qualifications of the labour supply with the actual work requirements made on the labour force.